kapilmishra

Posts Tagged ‘sonia gandhi’

Ready..Steady….Wait

In Uncategorized on June 29, 2011 at 12:59 pm

Congress is all set for a “Game Changer” or is it?

In a post in September last year titled “Indian Politics will not be the same again” this writer has predicted huge change in Indian Politics. 9 months down the line, the scene has become all the more complex and stage is all set for a never before political drama.

The main theme of this play is being scripted and rehearsed at 10 Janpath but almost every political party and player is preparing their own scripts, role plays and characters.

If postponement of Monsoon Session and recent statements by Congress leaders are a clue, then the drama will start from upcoming Cabinet Reshuffle or may be from PM’s interaction with editors  happening now (Yes he is speaking today). Chances are today”s interaction of Manmohan Singh with editors can be a curtain raiser for things to come.

This cabinet reshuffle is going to be a major one for sure and Congress would definitely like to use this opportunity to get back its popular support and to show a new and brave face to the people.

It seems that this reshuffle will not be limited to expected changes like removal of Maran or introducing more faces from UP or a TMC Cabinet Minister for Railway, of course all this should be there but there has to be something more.

Sonia and Manmohan have never been seen spending hours together discussing cabinet reshuffle with no other party leader joining them. Such meetings between the two happened thrice over last fortnight.

Last week we saw Digvijay talking about need for a young PM and this week it was Chidambaram almost repeating Diggy. Has it ever happened before when PC and Diggy have shared common thoughts on any issue,  that too publicly?

Keeping in mind the current political realities of UP, ever rising inflation, civil society uprising against corruption and recently held election results, Congress badly need a “Game Changer” and it has no one else but its very own Gandhi Family to rely upon.

Stage is all set for Rahul to take over as PM, the question is how soon will it happen? Are we going to see that happening this week, this month or later….it seems that its a now or never situation for the Prince of Congress and most Congress leaders are able to read this writing on the wall.

Why its Now or Never for Rahul Gandhi

Rahul is “PM-Congress is waiting for” for last eight years or more, according to wikipedia, some senior Congress leaders think that his time has already come and gone, however majority of Congress cadre is patiently waiting for their Prince Charming to take over.

Rahul Gandhi has taken up the responsibility of Party’s revival in Uttar Pardesh and his actions and statements on Bhatta Parsual shows the desperation. Any neutral analysis of current political reality in Uttar Pradesh will give Congress at best third place if today we have elections  in this politically most important state. The task before Rahul is to take Congress from this third place to First place, come what may. Option of failure is not there because country and most importantly congress workers will judge Rahul Gandhi from the outcome of UP elections.

In spite of  whatever Rahul Gandhi does, Congress can not do it alone in UP with current political scenario at the center. Things need to be changed and need to be changed very fast.

What if Congress continues with current political scenario and loses in UP  next year, that will put a big question mark on Rahul’s leadership and no one would like to take that risk in Congress, not even Rahul himself. He himself has taken this challenge upon himself and is now getting desperate to justify it.

Outside UP also, political situation is demanding a “game changer” from Congress. Civil Society uprising fueled by media is already taking its toll, proceedings in Supreme Court on 2G scam also showing chances of huge further embarrassments for the party in near future.

Immediate Loksabha elections will suit both Mamta Bannerji and Jayalalitha and Jaya has almost declared her intention in her interview to Times Now day before yesterday.

With upcoming elections in UP, Congress can not rely upon Mayawati or Mulayam Singh for continued support as they have nothing to lose now, they anyway have to go for election in UP. And if we look at responses of Parties in PAC meeting headed by BJP leader MM Joshi there is a sudden change from yesterday, it is very clear that Congress can not be sure of  BSP support in Parliament anymore.

Only major party that Congress can be assure of  in case of a vote count in Parliament is DMK, DMK can not afford to go for election now, same is true for Lalu and Paswan but they don’t matter much in terms of numbers in Parliament.  NCP is reliable for now but Sharad Pawar is one of the most unpredictable politician and even with his support Congress is far away from the magic figure of 272 without the big three ( TMC, BSP, SP). Left parties do not want Loksabha elections at this moment but they will not support Congress during a floor test, it is difficult to speculate what would be their strategy in such a scenario.

So is country heading for a loksabha election? Most probably yes by the early next year.

But the real question is can Congress afford an Loksabha Election now? The answer is no, with clear possible losses in Andhra,  Rajasthan and Delhi and no new gains in any other state, Congress may not be able to redo the magic of 2009.

But age old Congressi leaders know how things can be changed in politics and it is all the more easy when you have a “still unused” young leader with a “Gandhi” surname.

What are the options before Congress? Both Congress and Rahul know that they have to go all out to deal with current political crisis, the only dilemma they are facing is about timing of this change. Developments over Last fortnight shows that Top Leadership of Party is now more clear about their plans, the sudden decisiveness (along with rudeness and insensitive attitude)  in dealing with Ramdev and Anna, or fuel price rise clearly shows that they are all ready with some well laid out plans.

What if Congress decide to go all out for Leadership Change in the govt and makes Rahul Gandhi PM, will it change fortunes for this age old party? Well the answer is Yes, at least for the time being.

Rahul as PM will definitely boost its chances in UP where with some symbolic decisions and  gestures, he can bring back the traditional Gandhi family voters.  Rahul as PM will be a challenge to BJP which is busy dealing with its own leadership crisis and infighting.  Some quick decisions on Women Reservation Bill, Food Security, Minority Rights and Lokpal by Rahul Gandhi may change the mood of the nation and Congress may get the confidence needed to face the Loksabha Elections.  Also any party particularly BJP would not like to get the blame for destabilizing the Central Govt headed by Rahul in its first year, it will be hard to justify that to the people.

Today while Manmohan Singh is interacting with editors justifying himself as PM, we may get a clue  about possible direction of change. Monsoon has reached Delhi and next two-three months are not going to be a dull period, there will be clouds, rains, lightening and even thunderstorms. Time will tell whether all this will happen behind the political walls or mud sledging will happen all out in public.

The mood in Party, the political reality and the signals from top leaders are all indicating a change, however declaring Congress as so predictable is like underestimating their political skills and history, they may come out with something entirely different and unexpected.

Shunglu Committee Report and inaction by Manmohan

In Uncategorized on March 25, 2011 at 3:58 pm

It’s Common v/s Wealth

The high level committee constituted to probe the loot in the name of commonwealth games 2010 has submitted its second interim report. This committee was formed by the government under huge social and political pressure on the issue of vulgar exploitation of common resources and open loot of common man that the country has witnessed last year.

Commonwealth Games have become symbol of corruption in the country.

The Shunglu Committee formed by government that is termed as High Level Committee but in fact this committee was never provided with any power to probe the large scale corruption that has shocked the nation. The committee did not had power to summon officials and ministers or to ask for files and documents. Further Committee can not even prosecute or register cases against those who are found guilty.

But the scale of corruption was so visible that even without any real power or authority, this committee could easily find that all possible rules and laws are broken in organization of CWG 2010.

This committee had submitted its first report in January on host broadcasting, the report was immediately made public and is available on the website of the committee. Central government then asked the central bureau of investigation (CBI) to file criminal cases against those who were named in the report.  Head of National television Doordarshan had to go after this.

But the scenario is different now, Shunglu committee has submitted its second report and clearly names Delhi Chief Minister and Lt. Governor for the financial losses. Prime Minister has asked not to make the report public and all government agencies are now actively working to cover up. This inaction raises very serious concerns.

Prime Minister had promised the nation that within 100 days of CWG 2010, the criminals of this open loot will be punished, the deadline is never met, all culprits of CWG loot are not only out in the public but also enjoying all benefits of the positions using which they exploited the nation. Be it Delhi CM Shiela Dixit or LG Tejinder Khanna, be it organizing committee head Suresh Kalmadi or Central government minister Jaipal Reddy or even DDA officials, all are smiling at the fortunes that they have looted in the name of games.

Only a few babus are arrested by CBI who could never do anything without clear directions from their bosses. Suresh Kalmadi is openly saying that if he is arrested he will name everyone who was involved, he is also telling that he dealt with only 5% of the total money that was looted and major loot was done by Delhi govt and other central government agencies.

A lot of water has flown down river yamuna since October last year, with Shiela still serving as Delhi CM, most evidences must have been destroyed by now.

This interim report by Shunglu committee should be taken seriously and Delhi Government should be sacked.

While nation need a Jan Lokbal bill that can prevent such corruption and loot in the future, CWG2010 looters should not be spared.

Time for Shiela to go.

Indian Politics will not be the same again…

In Uncategorized on September 2, 2010 at 11:34 pm

Sonia Gandhi will be ceremoniously declared re-elected unopposed as the National President of Indian National Congress on Sept. 3, 2010.

She will become longest serving President of this political party (yes longer than J.L. Nehru and Indira Gandhi).

But repetition of past in Indian politics will stophere. Everything that will happen in coming few months will be full of drama and unusual both in terms of process and outcome.

Starting from Congress Party- within one month of her re-election Sonia will appoint new team including  all state unit heads and also 10 general secretaries, 25  secretaries, 6 spokespersons, 1 treasurer that together comprises Congress Working Committee.With possible 33% women reservation in party posts and one person-one post formula being implemented in the party, this will lead to replacements of ministers in UPA govt. and change in political equations with in Congress.

With UPA touching lowest figures in terms of popularity, chances are we will witness some major reshuffle in Union Cabinet ( however no bets on Manmohan continuing as PM thoughPranab has already taken over  his job politically).

New Congress team will definitely be different and will upset good many influential leaders in Congress party and some of them may decide to fight for their survival from both inside and outside party circles.

Rahul will continue focusing on Uttar Pradesh but Court verdict on Ayodhya scheduled in September will definitely affect all present equations ans scenarios. If Govt. is aware of the verdict ( which is highly possible) then chances are Congress may showcase Rahul as great problem solver who will publicly announce solution of Ayodhya issue ( several rounds of talks between Hindu-Muslim religious leaders have already taken place and only finishing touch to the final compromise is left, Rahul of course has no role in it so far but he never had any in Vedanta also).

A sudden announcement of Ayodhya Solution before or immediately after Court verdict will go hugely in favor of Congress, but seeing the sensitivity of issue and its potential of charging emotions, one slight mistake may  provoke communal tension( violence also in selected areas). BSP will be the only loser in case of Communal violence however both Congress and BJP will benefit from a limited span of communal tensions followed by Ayodhya verdict.  No one knows what will happen after Ayodhya verdict but one thing is sure Indian politics is all set to change.

On other hand BJP-RSS-VHP are also trying their best to be part of possible solution of Ayodhya conflict and will not allow Congress to go away with any political gains alone.  This is their only hope to fight back in Uttar Pradesh.[I must remind you that this court verdict is not related to what happen on 6th December 1992, but this is in response to a question put by then President of India in 1993 asking  Supreme Court to find out whether there was any temple at the disputed site before 1528 and Supreme Court has further asked High Court to investigate and find out].

Other than these two possible catalyst to political drama in coming months, there is another interesting twist waiting to happen.In light of terrorist attacks and informations related to their funding sources, CIA has forced Swiss bank and Vatican Bank to share their secrets. India has also signed a deal with Swiss bank on 30th Aug. 2010 in this regard. Chances are Government will have access to these names and something may come out after Obama’s visit to India. We still have to see how it will affect our political circus.

We can say that  BJP-Congress coming together on nuclear bill in last session was nothing in comparison to political drama that lies ahead in coming months….wait and watch….

pikchar abhi baki hai….